US Economy Heading for Recession as Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index Declines for Tenth Consecutive Month

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined for the tenth consecutive month, according to a report released Monday by the business think tank. The index, which is a key barometer for the health of the economy, fell by 1% in December to 110.5. This is the fastest six-month decline since the start of the pandemic and is sending an ominous sign about the economy’s near-term prospects.

The LEI is a composite of several measures of the economy’s trajectory, including a shorter average workweek for employees, weaker manufacturing orders, and diminished consumer expectations. On average, the index peaks about a year ahead of a recession, indicating that a downturn is in store for the US in the near future.

The news has been met with agreement from a growing number of business leaders, who believe the US economy is getting worse. The LEI’s decline is a sign that the US is likely to tip into recession sometime this year.

The Conference Board’s report comes as the US is not yet in an official recession, but the LEI’s decline is a warning sign that the economy is headed in that direction. The US government and businesses will need to take steps to mitigate the effects of a potential recession and ensure that the economy remains stable.